Unpacking aviation travel futures : an application of causal layered analysis
May, M., & Hill, S. B. (2002). Unpacking aviation travel futures : an application of causal layered analysis. Journal of futures studies.
An overview of the issues influencing and driving aviation futures, and a critique of such futures, are provided. Air travel has been predicted to grow substantially in the decades ahead, as reflected in scenarios linked to the globalisation of tourism, and travel theories related to the future mobility of the world population. On the other hand, aviation futures are increasingly contested on ecological, resource and safety grounds. Causal layered analysis (CLA), a layered futures research method, is applied to a range of scenarios to add a depth perspective. We thus aim to provide a more holistic account of aviation/mobility/communications futures and their policy implications.